“We used to fool ourselves,’ he said. “We used to think our content was perfect just exactly as it was. We expected our business would remain blissfully unaffected even as the world of interactivity, constant connection and file sharing was exploding. And of course we were wrong. How were we wrong? By standing still or moving at a glacial pace, we inadvertently went to war with consumers by denying them what they wanted and could otherwise find and as a result of course, consumers won.”
MacUser: News: Music boss: we were wrong to go to war with consumers

Much of this is very obvious to anyone who has been observing (event glancing at) the Recording Industry during this long debacle. But the fact that Bronfman would change his tune so radically is quite interesting.
That is, of course, if his words have been reported accurately. Which seems to be the case, looking at the transcript of Bronfman Jr.’s speech (PDF).

Going back to the series of ideas about the future of the record industry as published by Rolling Stone a few weeks ago and mentioned here.

In the original article, five "theories" about what the future may hold for the record industry were listed, in connection with quotes from participants in that industry.

• Theory 1: Ad-Supported Music
• Theory 2: Peer-to-Peer Goes Legit
• Theory 3: Endless Access Points for Music
• Theory 4: Labels Change Their Stripes
• Theory 5: Consumers Become Retailers

These "theories" encourage me to add my own personal ideas about the future of music and the record industry. With reference to the Global Business Network, my ideas are thought of as scenarios or possible models. Given my very limited experience with the record industry itself (I’m an ethnomusicologist and a musician), these are purely based on my personal opinions and may seem unrealistic. But the exercise is quite fun.

Some of these scenarios overlap with one another or with the Rolling Stone "theories." This is how it should be as the future is rarely one-dimensional.

Scenario 1: DIY Music

Music ceases to be a spectator sport. Sales of recording equipment, music instruction material, musical instruments, music-related software, and musical charts all skyrocket, eventually making up for lost revenues in the record industry. While professional musicians remain important, emphasis is put on music-making activities. Music teachers, music researchers, and music therapists all gain recognition in the process. Increasingly, musickers and musicians are put on a continuum.

While it may not represent a radical shift, I notice such a tendency toward "democratised" music-making. Games like Guitar Hero, social networking sites like GarageBand.com, television shows like American Idol, and computer software like iLife GarageBand all seem to point in the same direction. Given the number of YouTube videos of people playing or otherwise participating in music, one can envision business models based on the fact that playing music is itself quite enjoyable.

As an analogy, home cooking might have an impact on restaurant businesses.

Scenario 2: Alternative Business Plans

Related to ideas about licensing mentioned in Rolling Stone but music-making becomes more of a commercial endeavour, like some forms of photography have become. Licensing music for use in videogames, grocery stores, wedding videos, lounges, commercials, ringtones, elevators… What would be sold then would not be the access to musical recordings but the association between musical elements and some location, product, person, or use. While such a scenario sounds very restrictive it could in fact be quite liberating as long as the licensing systems are extremely user-friendly and if musicians are truly involved in the financial transactions.

I recently blogged about ringtone sales as making some sense, in my mind. Through data available in the previous Rolling Stone article, I came to realise that the figures I had in mind were apparently off-base and that ringtone sales amount to much less than I originally thought. Still, it seems that some of those alternative business models have some chance of becoming quite important in the near future.

Scenario 3: The Two Cultures

Inspired by Lessig’s well-known Free Culture book, the idea that "permission culture and free culture" or "commercial culture and noncommercial culture" may coexist for a significant amount of time. I have actually given this scenario a fair bit of thought and it seems to me to be panning out to a certain extent.

The most radical examples of "free culture" are still rather marginal in terms of the awareness of the general population in North America but there seems to be a lot of dynamism in "free culture" in North America and elsewhere, especially as they relate to online activities.

Scenario 4: Status Quo

I really doubt that this is the scenario which will pan out but it’s important to think about the general instability of the current model. Most participants in the record industry’s business (including many musicians and music listeners) agree that the current situation is not at all viable. In fact, the agreement between record industry executives and music listeners is quite striking: we all know that things need to change. We just don’t agree on where those changes should lead us.

Scenario 5: Dinosaurs Wake Up

Though I have come to doubt that the member corporations in the Recording Industry Association of America might "get a clue" any time soon, it is something to consider. If it were the case, executives in these corporations might be able to save their stakes in the commercial transactions involving music. In order to do so, they would need to implement important changes to please everybody involved. In fact, they would need to make amends with those who have been involved in those numerous lawsuits, many of which are quite ludicrous.

Scenario 6: Music is Dead, Long Live Musics!

Call it the CriticalWorld scenario: Thinking Globalisation Through Music.

This one would be quite close to my heart, as an ethnomusicologist and anthropologist. And it’s a scenario which seems to be off the radar of many people "in the industry." People who grok this scenario tend to be closer to the "free culture" movement, possibly because of the Anglo-American origins of market-based liberalism.

The Euro-American dominance on music distribution networks makes way for a music diversity. Music scenes flourish all around the World, musicians from different parts of the World travel anywhere else without having to go through major distribution labels, music becomes social glue across any cultural or social border.

Of course, some music scenes may become more important than others and there is likely to be a lot of overlap between musical styles and genres across the Globe. But music diversity can be a powerful force whether or not we think of biological analogies. In this context, talking about "The Music Industry" would be like talking about "The Cuisine" or "The Language." Some people might envision a completely homogeneous world but I just cannot see that it will happen.

My hunch is that some mix of these and other ideas will make up "the future of music" yet there will not be a single direction for the whole of music-related businesses.

The future is bright. And complex.